AGP Executive Report

UN AI Governance: A UN expert panel warns AI power and the wealth it creates are concentrating in a few firms and countries, risking inequality and “authoritarian capture,” and urges governments to act now on shared rules. EU Trade & Industry: The EU tightens steel import rules and adds a €3 customs duty on low-value parcels, aiming to curb China-linked cheap online imports and reduce a widening trade gap. Armenia-EU Pivot: Ursula von der Leyen tells Armenia the EU will open its market if Russia blocks Armenian goods, while also expanding cooperation in the economy, energy, digital ties and AI. Venezuela Health Crunch: After deadly earthquakes, EU responders warn a major health crisis is looming as heat and humidity complicate relief. US-Iran Gulf Talks: Washington presses Iran to drop Strait of Hormuz transit fees as a 60-day nuclear deal push continues amid fragile de-escalation. OpenAI Stake Plan: OpenAI reportedly proposes a 5% equity stake for the US government via a public wealth fund-style vehicle, as scrutiny of AI’s profits grows. Ebola Economic Shock: A UN assessment says Ebola could cost Congo over $1bn and push nearly 1m more people into poverty. USMCA Review: Mexico says the US is not ready to automatically extend USMCA and disputes over steel, aluminum, autos and farm import rules are set for July talks.

Middle East Trade Shock: UNCTAD warns that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, 61 fragile economies still face oil and grain import shocks—Yemen is flagged as especially exposed, with continued disruption likely pushing up food, fuel and transport costs. EU Trade & Industry: The EU rolls out new steel and e-commerce rules aimed at cutting China-related trade imbalance, including a €3 customs duty on small parcels and tighter protections for EU steel makers. AI Governance Under Pressure: A UN scientific panel says AI capabilities are outpacing both scientific understanding and government policy, warning there’s no guarantee systems won’t cause catastrophic harm. EU Leadership & Enlargement: Ireland kicks off its EU Council presidency with a focus on values, competitiveness and security, while Moldova is praised as a top EU candidate reformer on the path toward membership talks. ASEAN Diplomacy: UAE and ASEAN officials meet in Abu Dhabi to advance the joint action plan and practical cooperation as Vietnam takes over the committee chairmanship. Disaster Response: The US sends specialized rescue and relief teams to Venezuela after devastating earthquakes, including runway repairs and mobile medical support.

EU Trade & Standards: Armenia is moving to set new rules for registering fish producers and issuing health certificates so exports to the EU can go through the bloc’s Trade Control and Expert Assessment System. UN AI Governance: A UN scientific panel warns AI’s benefits are huge but risks are growing fast, with evidence of deceptive behavior and calls for stronger, science-backed governance as adoption accelerates unevenly. Middle East Trade Shock: UN experts say reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t erase lasting economic scars for vulnerable economies, even as markets react to shifting US-Iran talks. US-Iran Human Rights: A UN rights expert criticizes the US-Iran MoU for sidelining human rights accountability, arguing Iranians are “barely visible” in the framework. EU Budget Fight: Germany is pushing for about a €450bn cut to the EU’s proposed €2tn long-term budget, warning it’s unsustainable amid defence, energy and climate demands. North America Trade: USMCA renewal talks are set to continue as the US signals it may not back a long extension, keeping uncertainty high for businesses. EU Border Chaos: Airlines and airports urge the EU to suspend a new biometric border system during peak summer after queues reportedly reach up to five hours. Climate Watch: EU monitors report record global ocean heat, warning it could drive sea level rise and more extreme weather.

Federal Real Estate Cleanup: The U.S. federal government owns more than half a billion square feet of office space, and a maintenance backlog of $370 billion is pushing costs higher—now a new push targets underused buildings for disposal to free up land for housing and growth. EU-Ukraine Steel & Drones: Ukraine is negotiating EU steel export access after new quotas, while the European Commission starts releasing €3.9 billion for Ukraine drone procurement to keep supplies flowing fast. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s “Dawn Crackdown” has detained dozens in its early phase, with Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi expected to use the momentum ahead of a Washington visit. Venezuela Earthquake Response: UN agencies warn of food shortages and disease risks after twin quakes killed nearly 2,000, as rescuers pull survivors from rubble. Crypto After MiCA: With the July 1 MiCA deadline looming, crypto firms are shifting toward Dubai as EU authorization squeezes services. U.S. Supreme Court & Fed: The Supreme Court lets Fed governor Lisa Cook stay for now but expands presidential power over other independent agency heads. World Bank Climate Finance: The World Bank drops a 45% climate-finance target, triggering pushback from developing countries.

EU Steel Safeguards: The European Commission rolled out new quotas that cut duty-free steel access, slashing overall tariff-free volumes by 47% to 18.3m tons and adding 50% tariffs on over-quota imports—while carving out special treatment for Ukraine and better rates for some FTA partners like the UK. EU–China Trade Tensions: China’s foreign ministry pushed back on EU blame, saying the fix is deeper cooperation, as Brussels sets October deadlines for “tangible results” on the EU’s trade imbalance and overcapacity concerns. US–Fed Power Fight: The US Supreme Court expanded presidential firing power for most independent agencies, but let Fed governor Lisa Cook stay for now—keeping a key check on political pressure over interest-rate decisions. Ukraine War Perception: A Gallup poll found only 7% of Ukrainians approve of US leadership, the lowest in years, even as many still back negotiations to end the war. South Africa Connectivity Push: Deputy President Paul Mashatile backed BrainSAT’s satellite services and Thuraya launch, aiming to expand secure voice and broadband across the country and wider Africa. Venezuela Earthquakes: The death toll from twin quakes topped 1,700 as frustration grows over rescue delays and blocked access for opposition figures. ASEAN Investment Signals: Vietnam is seeing more Japanese expansion plans, while Malaysia secured RM160m in export prospects at South Korea’s Korea Import Expo. Cybersecurity in Africa: Mastercard launched an Africa Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence to boost resilience across the continent’s fast-growing digital economy.

EU–China Trade Friction: Brussels is preparing new tariffs on China-made plug-in hybrid vehicles, escalating a wider push that already targets EVs and rare-earth supply chains. US Supreme Court Power Shift: The court lets Fed Governor Lisa Cook keep her job for now, but also expands presidential power by allowing Trump to fire leaders of other independent agencies at will. Middle East Energy & Security: Iraq is pressing for a bigger OPEC quota amid revenue strain, while Iraq and Syria agree to deepen cooperation on energy, water, agriculture, transport and border security. UN Counter-Terror Warning: UN chief António Guterres warns that wars, economic hardship, climate stress and AI-enabled platforms are helping extremist groups expand. Venezuela Earthquakes: UN and international responders face a slow, chaotic recovery as quake damage is estimated at about 6% of GDP. EU Data Privacy: Microsoft backs the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework in a court case, arguing it keeps transatlantic data transfers stable while protecting privacy. Malaysia Economy Policy: Malaysia’s MITI says subsidy rationalisation should be gradual and targeted, with savings aimed at MSME automation, EV infrastructure and green energy.

EU-Malaysia Trade Talks: Malaysia and the EU have wrapped up five chapters of the Malaysia-EU Free Trade Agreement, aiming to finish the deal by 2027, with the next round set for Sept 21-25 in Brussels. North Korea Weapons Tests: Pyongyang marked the Korean War anniversary with tests of upgraded rocket and missile systems, while Seoul and Washington tracked the launches and said analysis is ongoing. US-Iran Energy Shock: Oil prices rose after renewed US-Iran strikes raised fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, even as a fragile pause and talks continue. EU Digital Tax Tariff Threat: Trump renewed a threat of 100% tariffs on countries imposing digital services taxes, putting UK exporters on edge as business groups warn of knock-on costs. India vs EU Scrap Curbs: India asked the EU for relief from planned metal scrap export restrictions, warning they could tighten supplies and raise costs ahead of the trade pact. EU Presidency in Ireland: Ireland’s EU Council presidency kicks off with an informal EU employment and social affairs minister meeting in Ballina on July 6. UN Drug Warning: A new UN report says global drug use hit a record 331 million users in 2024, with cocaine at record levels and a huge treatment gap.

ASEAN Minerals Push: Malaysia is set to host the ASEAN Mineral Investment Forum (AMIF) 2026 in Kuala Lumpur in November, aiming to strengthen critical-minerals cooperation, sustainable mining, and downstream value-add across the region. EU–Togo Investment Dialogue: Togo, Team Europe and Eurocham launched a permanent investment and business-climate dialogue in Lomé to attract European capital and improve local skills, local content, and SME integration. Russia vs EU Sanctions: Vladimir Putin hit back at new EU sanctions, saying Russia has “sufficient resources” to withstand pressure as the bloc keeps piling on packages since 2022. Steel Tariff Talks: The EU’s ambassador to South Korea said consultations on a new EU steel tariff scheme should deliver a “productive” outcome, while warning risks from closer North Korea–Russia ties. US–Iran Tensions: The US warned Iran it will not allow threats to navigation around the Strait of Hormuz, as negotiations and strikes keep raising escalation fears. Migration Pressure in the US: US Homeland Security chief Markwayne Mullin told TPS migrants to seek permanent status or leave, after a Supreme Court move that could strip protections from hundreds of thousands. Digital Tax Trade War: Trump threatened 100% tariffs on countries with digital taxes, while the EU weighs its own levy options and prepares for possible retaliation. UNHCR Funding Crunch: Kuwait reaffirmed support for refugees and UNHCR partnership as the agency faces a severe funding shortfall with displaced people nearing 130 million.

EU Sustainable Finance: EU member states agreed to loosen fossil-fuel exclusions in the revised SFDR, allowing some high-emitting firms into a “transition” category if they meet strict, time-bound emissions plans. Energy Security: The EU warned jet-fuel supplies could worsen this summer even as Strait of Hormuz traffic improves, with recovery expected to take months for oil and years for gas. Tech & Markets: Fears of an AI bubble are resurfacing as big tech shifts from buybacks to debt to fund AI buildouts, raising concerns about interest-rate pressure and financial fragility. Middle East Diplomacy: Washington and Lebanon’s leaders discussed implementing the Israel-Lebanon framework, while the wider US-Iran ceasefire remains fragile after renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. Arab Unity & Investment: The Arab League highlighted investment in East Jerusalem as key to resilience, and Bahrain urged Arab unity to defend sovereignty. UN Humanitarian Watch: Yemen faces a severe food-security crisis, with 53% of the population projected in crisis or worse by end-2026. Global Governance: A UN report says the world ocean is in a deepening crisis, even as governance improves. Business & Trade: UAE officials met US counterparts to deepen strategic ties, citing $40B+ trade and major investment commitments. Climate & Health: Record heat hit parts of Europe, while UN experts warned AI can amplify bias and discrimination.

AI Governance in Washington: The White House is pushing OpenAI to release GPT-5.6 only to a limited set of approved enterprise customers first, under a government-managed review process, as officials weigh frontier AI safety and cybersecurity risks. EU–US Trade Clash: Trump renewed his threat of 100% tariffs on imports from countries that impose digital services taxes, while the EU says it will respond to defend regulatory autonomy. West Africa Investment Push: Nigeria, the EU, and ECOWAS held a regional business forum in Lagos to line up new investment avenues in agriculture, energy, infrastructure, tech, and manufacturing. Middle East Shipping Tensions: A tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed US-Iran exchanges, raising fears the ceasefire is fraying and sea-lane security is worsening. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: UN estimates put Venezuela’s twin-quake damage at about $6.7B (around 6% of GDP), with the death toll rising and humanitarian needs expanding. EU Presidency Watch: Ireland is set to take over the EU presidency from July 1, aiming to steer policy amid wars, migration pressure, and competitiveness concerns.

Middle East Flashpoint: The U.S. carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, testing a fragile ceasefire and prompting Tehran to warn against escalation. Energy Markets: The renewed tensions pushed European gas futures up about 1.6%, with LNG competition rising as storage stays below seasonal norms. EU Support for War-Torn Ukraine: The EU released the first €3.2bn tranche of a new Ukraine Support Loan, with conditions tied to public finance, anti-corruption, and defense funding. Brexit Reset: The EU Parliament approved the Brexit deal ahead of the UK’s departure, setting up tougher trade talks. AI-Driven Growth: China’s industrial profits jumped 18.8% in Jan–May as AI electronics and new-energy materials demand surged. Tech Supply Chains: South Korea joined the Pax Silica Summit in Washington to boost AI and semiconductor supply-chain resilience. Trade Fight Over Digital Taxes: Trump threatened 100% tariffs on any country taxing U.S. digital services, drawing an EU response defending regulatory autonomy. EU Migration Pressure: The EU tightened Somali visa rules over readmission cooperation, extending processing times and ending some waivers. Climate Action: UN and partners aim to raise follow-up response to major methane leak alerts to 80% by 2030.

IMF & Global Economy: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that oil-market stress from the Middle East is easing thanks to strategic releases, but the global outlook still faces big downside risks if a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire fails. Middle East Shipping: The UN paused Hormuz evacuations after a cargo ship was hit near a UN-backed “safe route,” underscoring how hard enforcement gaps can hit energy-dependent economies. EU-US Digital Trade Clash: Trump threatened 100% tariffs on any country imposing digital services taxes on U.S. firms, while the European Commission said the EU can regulate and will respond if needed. EU Tech Sovereignty Push: At UN Open Source Week, ministers and technologists argued open-source and open standards are key to “digital sovereignty,” aiming to reduce reliance on U.S. cloud giants. EU Energy Policy: The EU signed its first tripartite energy storage agreement to speed deployment and stabilize prices, alongside grid and permitting talks. Organized Crime Watch: Europol says EU criminal networks are adapting fast—731 networks and 400,000 members—using legal businesses and digital tools to stay resilient. AI Inflation: Reports say AI build-outs are driving up consumer prices by raising costs for chips, electricity, and data-center supply chains. Africa-EU Business: Nigeria and the EU reaffirmed a deepened strategic economic partnership, with the EU as a major trade and investment partner.

US Immigration: The Supreme Court backed Trump’s move to end Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians and Syrians, leaving them exposed to deportation. Middle East Shipping: The UN’s maritime agency paused Strait of Hormuz evacuations after a ship was hit by a projectile near Oman, as Iran warns transit outside its routes won’t be covered by safe-passage guarantees. EU Enlargement: Brussels is drafting a “gradual integration” plan to give Moldova and other candidates economic perks before full accession, without lowering accession conditions. EU Tax Push: The EU is weighing a bloc-wide 1% online gambling tax to fund education and addiction prevention. EU Digital Rules: Regulators move toward treating Amazon and Microsoft cloud services as “gatekeepers” under the DMA, raising compliance pressure. Tech Costs: Apple and Microsoft raised prices, citing AI-driven demand for memory and storage. Washington Economy: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge hit a new three-year high, driven by gas and AI-related equipment costs. ASEAN Energy: Sarawak Energy is pushing Borneo power interconnections as a stepping stone to a wider ASEAN Power Grid.

Strait of Hormuz Security: The UN’s maritime agency paused its ship-evacuation escort plan after a cargo vessel reported being hit near Oman, as Iran warned against unapproved routes and safety guarantees were questioned. EU Tech & Competition: The EU moved to treat Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure as “gatekeepers” under the Digital Markets Act, setting up tougher obligations for cloud dominance. EU-Russia Sanctions: The EU extended restrictive measures on Russia for another year to July 31, 2027. Ukraine Aid: The EU began disbursing the first €3 billion tranche of its €90 billion support loan for Ukraine’s recovery. Energy Access & Climate: A UN report says 655 million people still lack electricity, while energy poverty remains worst in sub-Saharan Africa. US Economy & Inflation: A key inflation gauge hit a three-year high in May, with gas prices and AI-related equipment among the drivers. US-Taiwan Politics: US lawmakers welcomed Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan leader amid ongoing review of a major arms package. Business & Compliance: MiCA crypto rules are set to tighten on July 1, with exchanges racing to be licensed.

Semiconductor Push: Malaysia will boost high-value chip design under its 13th Malaysia Plan, offering “token access” to local firms to speed domestic IC capability. UN Nuclear Row: The IAEA says inspectors will visit Iran’s enrichment sites under a US-Iran interim deal, while Tehran says visits wait for a final agreement—amid fresh Lebanon-Israel strikes. Energy & Trade Shock: Oil prices slid back below pre-Iran-war levels as Hormuz traffic rose, while Germany’s storage industry plans an EU complaint over capacity-market rules that it says sideline batteries. EU Rules With Real-World Impact: EU deforestation rules are squeezing Thai rubber smallholders, and SingPost warns low-value parcel volumes to the EU may drop after new July customs duties. Global Energy Access: A UN report says 655 million people still lack electricity, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and electrification must triple to hit 2030 goals. Tech & Safety: UN-backed global rules for self-driving cars were adopted, setting common safety requirements. Cyber & AI Governance: UN and partners urge AI firms to disclose environmental impacts, as Kaspersky reports a 74% surge in advanced cyber threats. Human Rights: A UN commission accuses Israel of deliberately targeting Palestinian children in Gaza and the West Bank.

AI & Rights: A UN working group warns that fast AI expansion without gender-responsive rules could deepen discrimination for women and girls, urging action on the digital divide and AI governance. Adolescent Pregnancy: Zimbabwe and UN agencies launched a national framework to prevent and respond to adolescent pregnancies after prevalence hit 23.7% among girls aged 15–19. EU Sanctions & Costs: EU ambassadors agreed to extend Russia sectoral sanctions for a year, as debate grows over the economic fallout of the EU’s Russia policy. Crypto Shake-Up: MiCA’s full rollout is forcing many crypto firms to shut down or stop serving EU customers if they lack authorization by July 1. Middle East & US Bases: A US Senate rebuke over Iran war powers comes as critics argue Washington’s large regional military footprint is counterproductive. Climate & Data Centers: UN chief Guterres urged AI firms to disclose environmental impacts, linking data-center growth to rising power and water demands. Regional Trade & Investment: Malaysia pushed the Johor-Singapore SEZ to US investors, while Armenia’s economy minister met EU missions to expand exports and trade support. US Domestic Economy: Trump ordered DOJ scrutiny of oil firms over gasoline price drops, while CBP hit a record 21,471 Border Patrol agents.